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The megawatts PJM can't build, it pays people not to use

PJM's last two capacity auctions came up short, and little new supply cleared. The grid already buys about as many megawatts by paying homes and businesses to use less at peak, and now data centers are paying for them too.

Written bykWhL
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Opener

6,831.3 MW1. That is how far short PJM's latest capacity auction came of the amount it says it needs for reliability1. In the same auction, about 7,000 MW of demand response cleared: homes and businesses paid to use less power when the grid is stressed1.**

PJM runs the grid and power market for 13 states and the District of Columbia, serving more than 67 million people2. New power plants aren't arriving fast enough to close that gap1,3. Yet PJM already buys about as many megawatts by paying people not to use them1.** Now data centers are paying for those megawatts too4,5.

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The whole topic on one page: 9 topics, their subtopics and the claims under them. Select a node, or press Enter or Space on it, to see its details, tag and sources. Draft: the map's detail text is still being verified.

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Radial topic mapPaying people not to use powerThe capacity gapVoltus and how VPPs workWho gets paid, how muchFERC smart-meter fightBring Your Own CapacityMoney and growth planPolitics and affordabilityGrid economics and reliabilityFuture grid (2035)Load growth forecastPJM's auction squeezeHow big is PJMGas can't arrive in timeHeat dome, July 2026ScaleDispatch and controlsPower vs energyResidential, business, data centersHomesData centersBusinessesComplaint and rulingAccess barriersBYOC launched Sept 30, 2025Google dealFlex vs on-site gasSunrun and Octopus partnersThe raiseGrowth targetsShare of DOE estimateCan PJM reach 10 GW?Statement of Principles, Jan 2026'Shapiro Cap'36 governor racesVirginia plan includes VPPs~10% flex cuts congestion pricesNJ outages twice a dayTing power-quality data (context) Ting sensor data, not official utility data20% flexible by 2035?AI orchestration: a visionVoltus 10 years oldNERC: peak demand +24%Bills doubling or triplingBusiness energy costs +5%/yr2026/27: 139 MW above requirement2027/28: 6,516.6 MW short2028/29: 6,831.3 MW shortReserve margin 14.7% vs 20%New supply only 524.7 MWPrice at cap: $325/MW-day13 states plus DC Tag basis: C13 (label is the ledger fact…Peak 162,713-168,158 MW, not 130,000GE Vernova: 116 GW orders, reservationsGas back-ordered to ~2030Record day: July 2, 20266,113 MW demand response deliveredPrices 'go bonkers'8.5 GW managed (company figure)Thousands of customers70-80 verticalsDaily, near-hourly dispatchEXAMPLE · Store: 3x power, 15 minutesEXAMPLE · Battery site: up to 10xEXAMPLE · 50,000 homes at 2 kWThermostat ~$25/yr (Shah)Battery: a few hundred $/yr139 MW earned $11 million~20% off spend commonKept a shift, church openComplaint against PJM, Oct 2025Order issued July 29, 2026 Tag basis: C17 (label is the order date…Sampling ban found unjustPaper hearing: not final10M meters, $6B (unverified)Illinois opened to residentialVirginia batteries can't enrollUtility-run programs lead~30 million homes in PJMUp to 100 MW a yearHyperscaler contracts '10+ years'Grew by 1,070 MW (~1 GW)Google's own 1 GW DROn-site gas: 25-200 h/yr31 turbine types$225M Series DInvestors named in releaseSalix: not in release'Biggest round' in 10 years20 GW by 2030 (forecast)PJM-heavy, North America'30 by 30' stretch goalDOE range: 80-160 GW by 203020 GW = 12.5-25% of DOE33 GW in North America (Jan 2025)~7,000 MW DR cleared 2028/29
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  • Contradicted
  • ExampleIllustrative numbers, not measurements
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Source map graph: topics placed at their first appearance, typed links between themT0 Cold open, host intro and outroT6 Money and growth planT2 What Voltus is and how a VPP worksT3 Who gets paid, and how muchT1 The capacity gapT4 Residential access: the FERC smart-meter fightT7 Politics and affordabilityT8 Grid economics and reliabilityT5 Bring Your Own Capacity and data centresT9 Future grid (2035)SP Sponsor reads (excluded from analysis)Source map graph (phone layout, time runs down): topics placed at their first appearance, typed links between themT0 Cold open, host intro and outroT6 Money and growth planT2 What Voltus is and how a VPP worksT3 Who gets paid, and how muchT1 The capacity gapT4 Residential access: the FERC smart-meter fightT7 Politics and affordabilityT8 Grid economics and reliabilityT5 Bring Your Own Capacity and data centresT9 Future grid (2035)SP Sponsor reads (excluded from analysis)
  • causes (arrow points to the effect)
  • depends on (arrow points to what it needs)
  • contrasts with
  • same segment
  • Line width = strength (quotes + adjacency)
Source map of the whole conversation: 11 topics cut from 95 transcript turns over 00:48:54, and 14 typed links, each backed by at least one verbatim, timestamped quote. Topics sit at their first appearance and are sized by airtime. Sponsor reads (SP, 2 min 5 s) carry no links and are hidden by default. Map data (JSON) · Map as text (Markdown)

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Topics in time order

Source map topics, their segments, airtime and links
TopicSegmentsAirtimeLinks
T0 Cold open, host intro and outro00:00:00–00:02:43
00:47:04–00:48:54		4 min 33 s (9.3%)L12
T6 Money and growth plan00:03:48–00:04:25
00:05:33–00:09:25		4 min 29 s (9.2%)L01, L05, L08, L13
T2 What Voltus is and how a VPP works00:04:25–00:05:33
00:09:25–00:15:51		7 min 34 s (15.5%)L02, L07
T3 Who gets paid, and how much00:15:51–00:19:033 min 12 s (6.5%)L06, L07
T1 The capacity gap00:19:03–00:22:193 min 16 s (6.7%)L01, L02, L03, L04, L06, L13
T4 Residential access: the FERC smart-meter fight00:22:19–00:26:544 min 35 s (9.4%)L08, L09
T7 Politics and affordability00:26:54–00:30:533 min 59 s (8.2%)L04, L05, L12
T8 Grid economics and reliability00:30:53–00:34:273 min 34 s (7.3%)L10, L14
T5 Bring Your Own Capacity and data centres00:34:27–00:40:586 min 31 s (13.3%)L03, L09, L10, L11, L14
T9 Future grid (2035)00:40:58–00:46:045 min 6 s (10.4%)L11
SP Sponsor reads (excluded from analysis) hidden in the map00:02:43–00:03:48
00:46:04–00:47:04		2 min 5 s (4.3%)none

Links and their evidence

  • L01 The capacity gap causes Money and growth plan · strength 1
    Evidence (1)
    • 00:05:57 guest, Voltus co-founder and CEO (Dana Guernsey): “I think it's safe to say we have a massive capacity gap. And so, you'll see us grow to 20 gigawatts by 2030. And so, that's why we raised capital.” Note 6
  • L02 What Voltus is and how a VPP works contrasts with The capacity gap · strength 3
    Evidence (3)
    • 00:04:25 guest, Voltus co-founder and CEO (Dana Guernsey): “it's not necessarily a problem of building more stuff; it's a problem of getting more out of the stuff that we have” Note 6
    • 00:20:35 host (Jigar Shah): “everyone like seems to be reaching for a new gas plant, right?” Note 6
    • 00:21:23 guest, Voltus co-founder and CEO (Dana Guernsey): “this is like definitely not an either-or; it's a, it's an all-of-the-above” Note 6
  • L03 Bring Your Own Capacity and data centres contrasts with The capacity gap · strength 2
    Evidence (2)
    • 00:34:27 host (Jigar Shah): “explain to folks why it makes sense for Google to pay their neighbors to flex instead of, you know, building a bunch of behind-the-meter natural gas” Note 6
    • 00:36:39 host (Jigar Shah): “If you instead put that money into batteries in all of the homes and businesses” Note 6
  • L04 The capacity gap causes Politics and affordability · strength 2
    Evidence (2)
    • 00:19:03 host (Jigar Shah): “their capacity market has gotten expensive” Note 6
    • 00:28:18 guest, Voltus co-founder and CEO (Dana Guernsey): “now that it's becoming less and less affordable, of course everyone is going to jump on that” Note 6
  • L05 Politics and affordability causes Money and growth plan · strength 1
    Evidence (1)
    • 00:28:18 guest, Voltus co-founder and CEO (Dana Guernsey): “we raised money and we're going really, really big at scale because we think we have this opportunity to just absolutely reshape the way that the electric grid is built” Note 6
  • L06 The capacity gap causes Who gets paid, and how much · strength 3
    Evidence (2)
    • 00:17:51 host (Jigar Shah): “this can actually offset some of the inflation that they're seeing” Note 6
    • 00:18:06 guest, Voltus co-founder and CEO (Dana Guernsey): “These electricity bills are just kind of coming in hot.” Note 6
  • L07 Who gets paid, and how much depends on What Voltus is and how a VPP works · strength 3
    Evidence (2)
    • 00:11:21 guest, Voltus co-founder and CEO (Dana Guernsey): “we pay businesses to use less energy at certain times of day” Note 6
    • 00:15:51 host (Jigar Shah): “Because that's what you're doing is you're paying them to change behavior” Note 6
  • L08 Money and growth plan depends on Residential access: the FERC smart-meter fight · strength 3
    Evidence (3)
    • 00:38:45 guest, Voltus co-founder and CEO (Dana Guernsey): “we've got this goal of 20 GW by 2030. How does that become 30 by 30?” Note 6
    • 00:38:45 guest, Voltus co-founder and CEO (Dana Guernsey): “The residential side of things is just so incredibly untapped.” Note 6
    • 00:25:02 guest, Voltus co-founder and CEO (Dana Guernsey): “There's like 30 million homes in PJM.” Note 6
  • L09 Bring Your Own Capacity and data centres depends on Residential access: the FERC smart-meter fight · strength 1
    Evidence (1)
    • 00:25:46 host (Jigar Shah): “you can have a backup battery in Virginia right now and you cannot enroll it in your program to help alleviate the congestion from all the data centers” Note 6
  • L10 Bring Your Own Capacity and data centres depends on Grid economics and reliability · strength 3
    Evidence (2)
    • 00:36:39 host (Jigar Shah): “those batteries are used to make the grid more reliable every single day of the year” Note 6
    • 00:33:14 guest, Voltus co-founder and CEO (Dana Guernsey): “the rest of the neighbors and the rest of the communities are absolutely benefiting” Note 6
  • L11 Future grid (2035) depends on Bring Your Own Capacity and data centres · strength 3
    Evidence (2)
    • 00:40:17 guest, Voltus co-founder and CEO (Dana Guernsey): “these hyperscaler contracts are 10-plus years in nature. So now we're talking about batteries that can be financeable in a way that they haven't been in the past” Note 6
    • 00:40:58 host (Jigar Shah): “you guys are willing to pay for a good chunk of that cost of the battery” Note 6
  • L12 Cold open, host intro and outro same segment as Politics and affordability · strength 2
    Evidence (2)
    • 00:00:07 host (Jigar Shah): “And so you had an emergency meeting of all the PJM governors at the White House.” Note 6
    • 00:28:14 host (Jigar Shah): “And so, they even had an emergency meeting of all the PJM governors at the White House.” Note 6
  • L13 The capacity gap same segment as Money and growth plan · strength 1
    Evidence (1)
    • 00:19:03 host (Jigar Shah): “The DOE's uh estimate of where we needed to be was 80,000 MW by uh 2030. So, you were 25% of it.” Note 6
  • L14 Grid economics and reliability same segment as Bring Your Own Capacity and data centres · strength 3
    Evidence (2)
    • 00:34:27 host (Jigar Shah): “they lose it like twice a day for like 25 seconds” Note 6
    • 00:34:27 host (Jigar Shah): “now you guys rolled out a program last year called Bring Your Own Capacity” Note 6

1. The question

If the grid is short of power, why pay people to use less? And who pays?

2. Power vs energy

Figure 6. Capacity vs energy (EXAMPLE, illustrative numbers)

Units: kW, h, kWh, GW.
Example numbers · not measurements
EXAMPLE diagram with illustrative numbers. Two rectangles on a grid of power in kilowatts against time in hours; the area is energy. A short, deep cut of 300 kW for 0.25 hours is 75 kWh. A long, shallow cut of 100 kW for 5 hours is 500 kWh. The short cut has three times the power but less energy. Inset: at 2 kW of flexible load per home, 500,000 homes make 1 GW (own calculation).

Scroll sideways to read the figure, or open the SVG below at full size →

Power is the height; energy is the area. A short, deep cut is more power but less energy.

Show the data as a table
Figure 6 data: Capacity vs energy (EXAMPLE, illustrative numbers) (fig_6_v3.csv)
SeriesCategoryValueUnitStatusClaim idsSource titleData dateCaveat
short_deep_powerShort, deep cut: power300kWEXAMPLEC27EXAMPLE: illustrative round numbers recorded in claim ledger v4 (C27, C19); arithmetic by kWh Lab2026-10-08†† illustrative
short_deep_hoursShort, deep cut: duration0.25hEXAMPLEC27EXAMPLE: illustrative round numbers recorded in claim ledger v4 (C27, C19); arithmetic by kWh Lab2026-10-08†† 15 minutes
short_deep_energyShort, deep cut: energy (own calc 300 x 0.25)75kWhEXAMPLEC27EXAMPLE: illustrative round numbers recorded in claim ledger v4 (C27, C19); arithmetic by kWh Lab2026-10-08†† own calc
long_shallow_powerLong, shallow cut: power100kWEXAMPLEC27EXAMPLE: illustrative round numbers recorded in claim ledger v4 (C27, C19); arithmetic by kWh Lab2026-10-08†† illustrative
long_shallow_hoursLong, shallow cut: duration5hEXAMPLEC27EXAMPLE: illustrative round numbers recorded in claim ledger v4 (C27, C19); arithmetic by kWh Lab2026-10-08††
long_shallow_energyLong, shallow cut: energy (own calc 100 x 5)500kWhEXAMPLEC27EXAMPLE: illustrative round numbers recorded in claim ledger v4 (C27, C19); arithmetic by kWh Lab2026-10-08†† own calc
home_kwFlexible load per home2kWEXAMPLEC19EXAMPLE: illustrative round numbers recorded in claim ledger v4 (C27, C19); arithmetic by kWh Lab2026-10-08†† illustrative assumption
homes_for_1gwHomes for 1 GW (own calc 1,000,000 kW / 2 kW)500000homesEXAMPLEC19EXAMPLE: illustrative round numbers recorded in claim ledger v4 (C27, C19); arithmetic by kWh Lab2026-10-08†† own calc
total_gwTotal1GWEXAMPLEC19EXAMPLE: illustrative round numbers recorded in claim ledger v4 (C27, C19); arithmetic by kWh Lab2026-10-08††
Source
kWh Lab arithmetic on example numbers in claim ledger v4 (C27, C19), report note ††.
Retrieved
2026-10-30 17:35-17:39 MT
CSV for Figure 6PNG for Figure 6SVG for Figure 6
  • Power, or capacity, is how much electricity is used at one moment. Units: kW (kilowatt), MW (1 MW = 1,000 kW), GW (1 GW = 1,000 MW).
  • Energy is power multiplied by time. Units: kWh (kilowatt-hour), MWh. 1 MWh is 1 MW for one hour.

PJM's auctions buy capacity: enough power for the few hours of highest demand each year.

EXAMPLE††: a store that cuts 100 kW for 5 hours saves more energy than one that cuts 300 kW for 15 minutes6:

100 kW×5 h=500 kWh300 kW×0.25 h=75 kWh100\ \text{kW} \times 5\ \text{h} = 500\ \text{kWh} \qquad 300\ \text{kW} \times 0.25\ \text{h} = 75\ \text{kWh}100 kW×5 h=500 kWh300 kW×0.25 h=75 kWh\begin{gathered}100\ \text{kW} \times 5\ \text{h} = 500\ \text{kWh} \\ 300\ \text{kW} \times 0.25\ \text{h} = 75\ \text{kWh}\end{gathered}

The short cut is three times the power but less than a sixth of the energy6. A grid short on capacity cares most about the power.

What 1 GW means. EXAMPLE††: at 2 kW of flexible load per home, 50,000 homes add up to 100 MW6, and 1 GW is about 500,000 homes (own calc: 1,000,000 kW / 2 kW)6.

3. How using less becomes a power plant

Figure 5. A demand-response event, step by step (process diagram)

Process diagram of a demand-response event in five steps. 1 Auction: the curtailment service provider bids its customers' promised cuts, in MW UCAP, into PJM's capacity auction, ahead of the delivery year. 2 Commitment: customers are paid in advance for a commitment to cut use in emergencies. 3 Grid stress: on a stressed day, for example July 2, 2026, PJM calls the cut. 4 Sites respond: sites cut use. 5 Measurement: the cut is measured from meter data or, in some cases, by statistical sampling; a FERC order of July 29, 2026 (not final) limits when PJM may bar sampling. PJM's official count comes about 60 days after the event.

Scroll sideways to read the figure, or open the SVG below at full size →

Show the data as a table
Figure 5 data: A demand-response event, step by step (process diagram) (fig_5_v5.csv)
figureelementidlabelfromtostylevalueunitdateclaim_idssource_titlesource_urldata_dateretrieved_mtlicencecaveat
5steps1Auction: CSP bids promised cuts (MW UCAP)1C30PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/2028-2029/2028-2029-bra-results-report.pdf2026-07-142026-10-30 17:35-17:39 MT(c) publisher; cite and linke.g. about 7,000 MW of DR cleared for 2028/29
5steps2Commitment: customers paid in advance to cut in emergencies2C28PJM Inside Lines: PJM Serves Load Through Record-Breaking July Heat (2026-07-10)https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-serves-load-through-record-breaking-july-heat/2026-07-022026-10-30 17:54-17:58 MT(c) publisher; cite and link
5steps3Grid stress: PJM calls the cut (e.g. July 2, 2026)32026-07-02C28PJM Inside Lines: PJM Serves Load Through Record-Breaking July Heat (2026-07-10)https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-serves-load-through-record-breaking-july-heat/2026-07-022026-10-30 17:54-17:58 MT(c) publisher; cite and link
5steps4Sites respond: sites cut use4C28PJM Inside Lines: PJM Serves Load Through Record-Breaking July Heat (2026-07-10)https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-serves-load-through-record-breaking-july-heat/2026-07-022026-10-30 17:54-17:58 MT(c) publisher; cite and linkno numbers
5steps5Measurement: meter data or, in some cases, statistical sampling52026-07-29C17FERC Order Granting Complaint in Part and Establishing Paper Hearing Procedures, Docket EL26-4-000 (issued 2026-07-29)https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/documents/ferc/orders/2026/20260729-el26-4-000.pdf2026-07-292026-10-30 17:54-17:58 MTUS government work (public domain)‡‡ FERC order 2026-07-29, granted in part; paper hearing, not final
5edgef1s1s2sequenceProcess description from report_v4 section 3 (no number)kWh Lab diagram
5edgef2s2s3sequenceProcess description from report_v4 section 3 (no number)kWh Lab diagram
5edgef3s3s4sequenceProcess description from report_v4 section 3 (no number)kWh Lab diagram
5edgef4s4s5sequenceProcess description from report_v4 section 3 (no number)kWh Lab diagram
5timet1Ahead of the delivery yearC30PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/2028-2029/2028-2029-bra-results-report.pdf2026-07-142026-10-30 17:35-17:39 MT(c) publisher; cite and link2028/29 auction held 2026-07-14
5timet2In advanceC28PJM Inside Lines: PJM Serves Load Through Record-Breaking July Heat (2026-07-10)https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-serves-load-through-record-breaking-july-heat/2026-07-022026-10-30 17:54-17:58 MT(c) publisher; cite and linkpaid in advance
5timet3Event dayC28PJM Inside Lines: PJM Serves Load Through Record-Breaking July Heat (2026-07-10)https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-serves-load-through-record-breaking-july-heat/2026-07-022026-10-30 17:54-17:58 MT(c) publisher; cite and link
5timet4During the eventProcess description from report_v4 section 3 (no number)kWh Lab diagram
5timet5After: PJM's official count about 60 days laterC28PJM Inside Lines: PJM Serves Load Through Record-Breaking July Heat (2026-07-10)https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-serves-load-through-record-breaking-july-heat/2026-07-022026-10-30 17:54-17:58 MT(c) publisher; cite and link* preliminary until then
Source
PJM Inside Lines (2026-07-10); PJM 2028/2029 BRA Report (2026-07-14); FERC order EL26-4 (2026-07-29).
Retrieved
2026-10-30 17:35-17:39 MT to 2026-10-30 17:54-17:58 MT
CSV for Figure 5PNG for Figure 5SVG for Figure 5

Demand response (DR) means customers cut use when the grid asks, for pay. A virtual power plant (VPP) is software that links many such sites so they act like one plant. In PJM, the company that signs up customers and bids their cuts is a curtailment service provider (CSP)7.

The steps:

  1. The CSP bids its customers' promised cuts into PJM's capacity auction1.
  2. Customers are paid in advance for a commitment to reduce use during grid emergencies8.
  3. On a stressed day, PJM calls on demand response8; sites cut use.
  4. The cut is measured, from customers' meters or, in some cases, by statistical sampling7.

In the capacity auction, a promised cut counts toward the same need as a megawatt from a plant1.

4. Why PJM's auctions came up short

Figure 2. PJM's capacity auctions: a small surplus, then two shortfalls

Units: MW UCAP; reserve margins in %.
Two bar charts by PJM capacity auction delivery year, in MW UCAP. Left: position against the reliability requirement: 139 MW above for 2026/27, then 6,516.6 MW short for 2027/28 and 6,831.3 MW short for 2028/29. Estimated reserve margins were 18.9% vs a 18.6% target, 14.9% vs 20.0%, and 14.7% vs 20.0%. Right: new generation plus uprates cleared, stacked: 2,668.6 MW (1,474.6 new + 1,194 uprates), 774.3 MW (350.7 + 423.6) and 524.7 MW (317.1 + 207.6); all exclude reactivated capacity and imports. For scale, demand response cleared about 7,000 MW in 2028/29, counted differently.

Scroll sideways to read the figure, or open the SVG below at full size →

PJM's 2026/27 auction cleared 139 MW above its reliability requirement. The next two came up short, by 6,516.6 and 6,831.3 MW. New generation and uprates fell from 2,668.6 to 524.7 MW. Units: MW UCAP.

Show the data as a table
Figure 2 data: PJM's capacity auctions: a small surplus, then two shortfalls (fig_2_v3.csv)
SeriesCategoryValueUnitStatusClaim idsSource titleData dateCaveat
position_vs_requirement2026/27139MW UCAPverifiedC35PJM 2026/2027 Base Residual Auction Report (2025-07-22)2025-07-22above the RTO reliability requirement (C35 notes)
position_vs_requirement2027/28-6516.6MW UCAPverifiedC12PJM 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction Report (2025-12-17)2025-12-17below requirement; 2027/28 report exec summary (C12 notes, ledger v4)
position_vs_requirement2028/29-6831.3MW UCAPverifiedC11PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)2026-07-14below the RTO reliability requirement
reserve_margin2026/2718.9% (estimated total reserve margin)verified (estimate)C11PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)2026-07-14‖ estimate; PJM 2028/29 report Table 2 (C11 notes)
reserve_margin_target2026/2718.6% (installed reserve margin target)verifiedC11PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)2026-07-14Table 2 (C11 notes)
reserve_margin2027/2814.9% (estimated total reserve margin)verified (estimate)C11PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)2026-07-14‖ estimate; Table 2 (C11 notes)
reserve_margin_target2027/2820.0% (installed reserve margin target)verifiedC11PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)2026-07-14Table 2 (C11 notes)
reserve_margin2028/2914.7% (estimated total reserve margin)verified (estimate)C11PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)2026-07-14‖ estimate; Table 2 (C11 notes)
reserve_margin_target2028/2920.0% (installed reserve margin target)verifiedC11PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)2026-07-14Table 2 (C11 notes)
new_generation2026/271474.6MW UCAPverifiedC35PJM 2026/2027 Base Residual Auction Report (2025-07-22)2025-07-22part of 2,668.6; excludes reactivated and imports
uprates2026/271194MW UCAPverifiedC35PJM 2026/2027 Base Residual Auction Report (2025-07-22)2025-07-22part of 2,668.6
new_gen_plus_uprates2026/272668.6MW UCAPverifiedC35PJM 2026/2027 Base Residual Auction Report (2025-07-22)2025-07-22new generation + uprates; excludes reactivated and imports
new_generation2027/28350.7MW UCAPverifiedC12PJM 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction Report (2025-12-17)2025-12-17part of 774.3
uprates2027/28423.6MW UCAPverifiedC12PJM 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction Report (2025-12-17)2025-12-17part of 774.3
new_gen_plus_uprates2027/28774.3MW UCAPverifiedC12PJM 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction Report (2025-12-17)2025-12-17new generation + uprates; excludes ~138.9 reactivated and 1,005.9 imports (C12 notes)
new_generation2028/29317.1MW UCAPverifiedC12PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)2026-07-14part of 524.7
uprates2028/29207.6MW UCAPverifiedC12PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)2026-07-14part of 524.7
new_gen_plus_uprates2028/29524.7MW UCAPverifiedC12PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)2026-07-14new generation + uprates; excludes imports
dr_cleared2028/297000MW UCAPverified (approximate)C30PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)2026-07-14** approximately 7,000 MW; counted differently; not a sum
Source
PJM BRA Reports 2026/2027 (2025-07-22), 2027/2028 (2025-12-17), 2028/2029 (2026-07-14). Ledger v4 claims: C11, C12, C30, C35.
Retrieved
2026-10-30 17:35-17:39 MT to 2026-10-31 11:47-11:55 MT
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PJM buys capacity ahead of time in its Base Residual Auction. Amounts are in MW UCAP (unforced capacity): megawatts adjusted for how often a resource is actually available.

  • 2026/27: cleared 139 MW above the reliability requirement9.
  • 2027/28: 6,516.6 MW UCAP short1.
  • 2028/29: 6,831.3 MW UCAP short1.

So the shortfalls began with the 2027/28 auction1,9. PJM's estimated reserve margin (spare capacity above expected peak) fell to 14.7%, against a 20% target1.‖

New supply is shrinking. New generation plus uprates (upgrades that get more out of existing plants) fell from 2,668.6 MW for 2026/279 to 774.3 MW for 2027/281 and 524.7 MW for 2028/291. The 2028/29 figure is 317.1 MW of new plants and 207.6 MW of uprates1. These counts leave out reactivated plants and imports1,9.

The price hit the cap, $325 per MW-day (a payment per megawatt for each day it is on call)2:

$325/MW-day×365=$118,625 per MW per year\$325/\text{MW-day} \times 365 = \$118{,}625\ \text{per MW per year}$325/MW-day×365=$118,625 per MW per year\begin{gathered}\$325/\text{MW-day} \times 365\\= \$118{,}625\ \text{per MW per year}\end{gathered}

2

That cap and a floor were set with the 13 PJM governors and FERC (the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which oversees wholesale power markets), and 2028/29 was the third auction under them2. A January 2026 Statement of Principles, signed by Secretaries Wright and Burgum with all 13 governors, asks to extend the collar to the next two auctions10.

Relief from new gas plants is slow. GE Vernova reported 116 GW of gas turbine orders plus slot reservations in July 2026 and said it was mostly sold out through 20303. Demand keeps rising: NERC (the North American Electric Reliability Corporation) expects peak demand to grow 24% over the next decade11.

5. Flexibility is already big

Figure 3. Record-demand day, July 2, 2026

Units: MW.
Bar chart of PJM load on July 2, 2026, in megawatts. Power served peaked at a preliminary 162,713 MW (instantaneous). PJM's preliminary estimated unrestricted peak, including load held down by demand response, was 168,158 MW, above the previous record of 165,563 MW set in 2006, shown as a reference line. The 2006 record is not measured like-for-like with the 168,158 MW estimate, which adds back demand response. In a separate panel on the same scale, about 6,113 MW of demand response showed up (preliminary PJM estimate). The values are measured differently and do not add up. Secondary footnote: Grid Status reports a preliminary hourly peak of 162.5 GW.

Scroll sideways to read the figure, or open the SVG below at full size →

PJM served a preliminary peak of 162,713 MW and estimates demand would have hit a record 168,158 MW without demand response. About 6,113 MW of demand response showed up. Bars are measured differently and don't add up.

Show the data as a table
Figure 3 data: Record-demand day, July 2, 2026 (fig_3_v5.csv)
SeriesCategoryValueUnitStatusClaim idsSource titleData dateCaveat
served_peakPower served162713MWverified, preliminaryC37PJM DISRS presentation: Hot Weather Operations and Load Management Events, July 2-3 (Scott Baker, 2026-08-03)2026-07-02* PJM preliminary instantaneous peak (17:55)
unrestricted_peakEstimated unrestricted peak168158MWverified, preliminaryC37PJM DISRS presentation: Hot Weather Operations and Load Management Events, July 2-3 (Scott Baker, 2026-08-03)2026-07-02* PJM estimate, preliminary; DISRS slide 2
previous_recordPrevious record (2006-08-02)165563MWverified (PJM primary)C62PJM Inside Lines: PJM Serves Load Through Record-Breaking July Heat (2026-07-10)2006-08-02reference line; not like-for-like with the 168,158 MW estimate, which adds back load held down by demand response; PJM does not say how the 2006 record was measured
dr_performanceDemand response that showed up6113MWverified, preliminaryC28PJM Inside Lines: PJM Serves Load Through Record-Breaking July Heat (2026-07-10)2026-07-02* PJM preliminary estimate; official count after 60 days
served_peak_hourly_secondaryGrid Status preliminary hourly peak (footnote only)162.5GW (hourly, served)secondary, preliminaryC36Grid Status blog: By The Thermostat's Red Glare (Tim Ennis, Abby Lestina, Connor Waldoch, 2026-07-31)2026-07-02secondary; footnote only
Source
PJM DISRS presentation (2026-08-03); PJM Inside Lines (2026-07-10); Grid Status (2026-07-31, secondary). Ledger v7 claims: C37, C28, C36, C62. The 2006 record (C62) is not measured like-for-like with the 168,158 MW estimate, which adds back demand response.
Retrieved
PJM DISRS presentation: 2026-10-30 17:57 MT; PJM Inside Lines: 2026-10-30 17:38 MT; Grid Status blog: 2026-10-30 17:38 MT
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On July 2, 2026, PJM served a peak of 162,713 MW12.* It estimates demand would have reached 168,158 MW without the load that demand response held down, beating the 2006 record of 165,563 MW8,12.* About 6,113 MW of demand response showed up that day8.* That is about 3.6% of the estimated peak (own calc: 6,113 / 168,158)8.

The demand response PJM bought for 2028/29, about 7,000 MW, is about the size of that auction's 6,831.3 MW shortfall (own comparison)1.**

6. Who pays whom

Figure 4. Who pays whom (flow chart, no scale)

Flow chart of who pays whom. PJM's capacity market pays a curtailment service provider, or aggregator, such as Voltus, capacity payments priced in dollars per MW-day; the 2028/29 auction cleared at the $325 per MW-day cap. The aggregator passes a share to homes and businesses (split not public), which cut use when PJM calls; that cut is the service PJM pays for. Under Bring Your Own Capacity, a data center such as Google also pays the aggregator, which pays nearby customers for accredited capacity. Separate example: one data center delivered 139 MW of capacity and earned $11 million, offsetting 87% of its capacity costs; this includes backup generation, and fuel and period are not stated.

Scroll sideways to read the figure, or open the SVG below at full size →

Show the data as a table
Figure 4 data: Who pays whom (flow chart, no scale) (fig_4_v3.csv)
ElementIdLabelFromToStyleValueUnitClaim idsSource titleData dateCaveat
nodepjmPJM capacity marketC13; C30PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)2026-07-14
nodecspCSP / aggregator (e.g. Voltus)C16; C17FERC Order Granting Complaint in Part and Establishing Paper Hearing Procedures, Docket EL26-4-000 (issued 2026-07-29)2026-07-29curtailment service provider
nodehomesHomes and businessesC28PJM Inside Lines: PJM Serves Load Through Record-Breaking July Heat (2026-07-10)2026-07-02
nodedcData center (e.g. Google)C20; C23Voltus press release: Voltus Launches "Bring Your Own Capacity" Product to Support Data Center Growth and Grid Resiliency (2025-09-30)2025-09-30
nodenearbyNearby customersC20Voltus press release: Voltus and Google ... Bring Your Own Capacity Agreement (2026-06-02)2026-06-02
edgee1capacity payments ($/MW-day)pjmcspmoney325USD/MW-dayC13; C30PJM news release: PJM Capacity Auction Procures 138,318 MW ... (2026-07-14)2026-07-142028/29 cleared at the cap
edgee2share of payments (split not public)csphomesmoneyC20; C28Voltus press release: Voltus and Google ... Bring Your Own Capacity Agreement (2026-06-02)2026-06-02split and margin not public
edgee3BYOC paymentsdccspmoneyC23; C20; C21Voltus press release: Voltus Launches "Bring Your Own Capacity" Product to Support Data Center Growth and Grid Resiliency (2025-09-30)2025-09-30Google deal 2026-06-02; grew by 1,070 MW to about 1 GW on 2026-10-22 (C21)
edgee4pays for accredited capacitycspnearbymoneyC20Voltus press release: Voltus and Google ... Bring Your Own Capacity Agreement (2026-06-02)2026-06-02
edgee5cut use on callhomespjmservice_dashedC28PJM Inside Lines: PJM Serves Load Through Record-Breaking July Heat (2026-07-10)2026-07-02service, not money
valuec24_mwData-center case: capacity delivered139MWC24Voltus blog: PJM Capacity Auction Results 2027/2028: What C&I Facilities Need to Know (2026-01-12)2026-01-12§ includes backup generation; fuel and period not stated
valuec24_usdData-center case: revenue earned11million USDC24Voltus blog: PJM Capacity Auction Results 2027/2028: What C&I Facilities Need to Know (2026-01-12)2026-01-12§ period not stated
valuec24_pctData-center case: share of capacity costs offset87%C24Voltus blog: PJM Capacity Auction Results 2027/2028: What C&I Facilities Need to Know (2026-01-12)2026-01-12§
Source
PJM 2028/2029 auction report and release (2026-07-14); Voltus releases 2025-09-30, 2026-06-02, 2026-10-22; Voltus blog 2026-01-12; FERC EL26-4 order 2026-07-29.
Retrieved
2026-10-30 17:35-17:39 MT to 2026-10-31 11:47-11:55 MT
CSV for Figure 4PNG for Figure 4SVG for Figure 4

Grid market to customers. PJM pays for capacity; the CSP passes part of it to customers1,4. Voltus, one CSP, says it manages about 8.5 GW of customer-side resources13.‡ It raised $225 million in October 202611 and forecasts 20 GW by 203011, from markets in the US and Canada11.‡ How the money is split, and the margin, are not public.

Two people in the business describe the payouts:

  • "a homeowner with a smart thermostat might get $25 a year; a homeowner with a home battery might get a few hundred dollars a year." Jigar Shah6.†
  • "I could say something like 20% off their electricity spend is incredibly common, but we have customers who go up through 50, 60, 70—all of their electricity spend can be offset by participation in these programs." Dana Guernsey, Voltus CEO6.†

Data centers as a new payer. Under Bring Your Own Capacity (BYOC), launched September 30, 2025, a data center pays an aggregator to line up accredited capacity from nearby homes and businesses14,4. Voltus announced a three-year BYOC deal with Google in PJM on June 2, 2026, for up to 100 MW of distributed resources each year4. Voltus's CEO called it the "initial phase"4. On October 22, 2026, it grew by 1,070 MW, to what the companies call about 1 GW (own calc: 100 + 1,070 = 1,170 MW)5. The June release says Google also has 1 GW of demand response from its own data centers through utility agreements4.‡

One data center in PJM delivered 139 MW of capacity and earned $11 million, offsetting 87% of its capacity costs15.§ Part of that came from backup generation, not from using less15.§

More homes may join. Voltus and Mission:data complained to FERC in October 20257. On July 29, 2026, FERC granted the complaint in part7.‡‡ It found aggregators "cannot reasonably access" residential customers' interval meter data and face "significant barriers" to getting it7. FERC found it unjust and unreasonable for PJM to bar statistical sampling (estimating a home's cut from a sample) when a customer has an interval meter but the data is "not reasonably accessible"7; the replacement rule is still being set.‡‡

7. Scale check

Figure 1. Scale check

Units: GW (capacity).
Horizontal bar chart of capacity in gigawatts. Voltus had 1.7 GW in 2021 (secondary source). It manages about 8.5 GW today (company figure, under management) and forecasts 20 GW by 2030 (company forecast, from markets in the US and Canada). VPPs across North America had grown to 33 GW in January 2025. DOE says 80 to 160 GW of VPPs by 2030 could support load growth; that is an estimate, not a target. Forecasts and estimates are hatched.

Scroll sideways to read the figure, or open the SVG below at full size →

Voltus manages about 8.5 GW and forecasts 20 GW by 2030. DOE says 80-160 GW of virtual power plants by 2030 could support load growth. Forecasts and estimates are hatched.

Show the data as a table
Figure 1 data: Scale check (fig_1_v4.csv)
figureseriescategoryvaluevalue_lowvalue_highunitstatusclaim_idssource_titlesource_urldata_dateretrieved_mtlicencecaveat
1voltus_2021Voltus, 20211.7GW (capacity)verified (secondary)C04Latitude Media: Voltus raises $225 million to scale BYOC for data centers (Maeve Allsup, 2026-10-08)https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/voltus-raises-225-million-to-scale-byoc-for-data-centers/2026-10-082026-10-30 17:54-17:58 MT(c) publisher; cite and linksecondary: Latitude Media quote '1.7 gigawatts of load under management'
1voltus_todayVoltus, today8.5GW (capacity)verified (company claim)C05Voltus About pagehttps://www.voltus.co/about2026-10-302026-10-30 17:35-17:39 MT(c) publisher; cite and link‡ company figure, under management; not daily dispatch; not audited
1voltus_2030Voltus, 203020GW (capacity)verified (company forecast); scope wording partialC06; C38Voltus press release: Voltus Raises $225 Million to Make Flexibility Foundational to the Gridhttps://www.voltus.co/press/voltus-series-d-funding2026-10-082026-10-30 17:35-17:39 MT(c) publisher; cite and link‡ company forecast, from markets in the US and Canada
1vpp_naVPPs, North America (DOE, Jan 2025)33GW (capacity)verifiedC34DOE Office of Technology Commercialization release: Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Virtual Power Plants (2025-01-10)https://www.energy.gov/technologycommercialization/articles/us-department-energy-releases-new-reports-highlighting2025-01-102026-10-31 11:26-11:28 MTUS government work (public domain)North America (DOE release 2025-01-10)
1doe_2030_rangeDOE, 203080160GW (capacity)verified (estimate)C34DOE Office of Technology Commercialization release: Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Virtual Power Plants (2025-01-10)https://www.energy.gov/technologycommercialization/articles/us-department-energy-releases-new-reports-highlighting2025-01-102026-10-31 11:26-11:28 MTUS government work (public domain)‖ could support load growth, not a target; no geography named
Source
DOE release 2025-01-10; Voltus Series D release 2026-10-08; Voltus About page (retrieved 2026-10-30); Latitude Media 2026-10-08. Ledger v4 claims: C04, C05, C06, C38, C34.
Retrieved
2026-10-30 17:35-17:39 MT to 2026-10-31 11:26-11:28 MT
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The US Department of Energy (DOE) says deploying 80 to 160 GW of VPPs by 2030, enough to serve 10 to 20% of peak load, could support rapid load growth while reducing overall grid costs16.‖ Voltus's 20 GW forecast would be 12.5% to 25% of that (own calc: 20 / 160; 20 / 80)11,16. In January 2025, DOE said VPPs across North America had grown to 33 GW16.

Closer

6,831.3 MW short1; about 7,000 MW of demand response bought1. Some of PJM's new megawatts may be the ones its customers agree not to use. Watch FERC's paper hearing7 and PJM's next auction. Together they will show whether flexibility gets paid like a power plant.

Figure 7. Timeline, Sept 2025 to Oct 2026

Timeline of key events, September 2025 to October 2026: 2025-09-30, BYOC launched; 2025-10-08, Voltus and Mission:data complaint at FERC; 2026-01-15, Statement of Principles: Secretaries Wright and Burgum with all 13 PJM governors; 2026-06-02, Google BYOC deal, up to 100 MW a year; 2026-06-30, DOE emergency orders for PJM, incl. backup generation as a last resort; 2026-07-02, Record-demand day, preliminary; 2026-07-14, 2028/29 auction: 6,831.3 MW short, $325/MW-day cap; 2026-07-29, FERC order, granted in part, paper hearing; 2026-10-08, Voltus raises $225M; 2026-10-22, Google deal grows by 1,070 MW to about 1 GW.

Scroll sideways to read the figure, or open the SVG below at full size →

Show the data as a table
Figure 7 data: Timeline, Sept 2025 to Oct 2026 (fig_7_v3.csv)
ElementIdLabelValueUnitDateClaim idsSource titleData dateCaveat
eventev01BYOC launched2025-09-30C23Voltus press release: Voltus Launches "Bring Your Own Capacity" Product to Support Data Center Growth and Grid Resiliency (2025-09-30)2025-09-30
eventev02Voltus and Mission:data complaint at FERC2025-10-08C16FERC Order Granting Complaint in Part and Establishing Paper Hearing Procedures, Docket EL26-4-000 (issued 2026-07-29)2026-07-29
eventev03Statement of Principles: Secretaries Wright and Burgum with all 13 PJM governors2026-01-15C31DOE: Statement of Principles Regarding PJM (signed 2026-01-15)2026-01-15signed by Secretaries Wright and Burgum with all 13 PJM governors (C31 notes)
eventev04Google BYOC deal, up to 100 MW a year100MW per year2026-06-02C20Voltus press release: Voltus and Google ... Bring Your Own Capacity Agreement (2026-06-02)2026-06-02
eventev05DOE emergency orders for PJM, incl. backup generation as a last resort2026-06-30C39DOE Newsroom: Energy Secretary Secures Mid-Atlantic Grid Ahead of Period of Hot Weather (2026-06-30)2026-06-30
eventev06Record-demand day, preliminary *2026-07-02C37; C28PJM DISRS presentation: Hot Weather Operations and Load Management Events, July 2-3 (Scott Baker, 2026-08-03)2026-07-02* preliminary
eventev072028/29 auction: 6,831.3 MW short, $325/MW-day cap6831.3; 325MW UCAP; USD/MW-day2026-07-14C11; C13PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14)2026-07-14
eventev08FERC order, granted in part, paper hearing ‡‡2026-07-29C17FERC Order Granting Complaint in Part and Establishing Paper Hearing Procedures, Docket EL26-4-000 (issued 2026-07-29)2026-07-29‡‡ not final
eventev09Voltus raises $225M225million USD2026-10-08C01Voltus press release: Voltus Raises $225 Million to Make Flexibility Foundational to the Grid2026-10-08
eventev10Google deal grows by 1,070 MW to about 1 GW1070MW2026-10-22C21Voltus press release: Google and Voltus Announce One Gigawatt BYOC Agreement (2026-10-22)2026-10-22
Source
Voltus press release: Voltus Launches "Bring Your Own Capacity" Product to Support Data Center Growth and Grid Resiliency (2025-09-30); FERC Order Granting Complaint in Part and Establishing Paper Hearing Procedures, Docket EL26-4-000 (issued 2026-07-29); DOE: Statement of Principles Regarding PJM (signed 2026-01-15); Voltus press release: Voltus and Google ... Bring Your Own Capacity Agreement (2026-06-02); DOE Newsroom: Energy Secretary Secures Mid-Atlantic Grid Ahead of Period of Hot Weather (2026-06-30); PJM DISRS presentation: Hot Weather Operations and Load Management Events, July 2-3 (Scott Baker, 2026-08-03); PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14); Voltus press release: Voltus Raises $225 Million to Make Flexibility Foundational to the Grid; Voltus press release: Google and Voltus Announce One Gigawatt BYOC Agreement (2026-10-22) (per-row sources in the CSV)
Retrieved
2026-10-30 17:35-17:39 MT to 2026-10-31 11:47-11:55 MT
CSV for Figure 7PNG for Figure 7SVG for Figure 7

Key data and claims from the source conversation

The conversation that started this piece, quoted and checked against our ledger. Times and the source are in Notes.

  • "they have about 8.5 gigawatts—8,500 megawatts—of demand flexibility and load flexibility that they control" Jigar Shah [TC01]. Verified with nuance: a company figure13. Source: Voltus About page. It is capacity Voltus manages, not capacity used every day13.
  • "the round was a $225 million Series D. It was, as you said, led by Generation Investment Management…" Dana Guernsey, Voltus CEO [TC06]. Verified11. Source: Voltus press release, 2026-10-08.
  • "you'll see us grow to 20 gigawatts by 2030" Dana Guernsey [TC10]. Verified as a company forecast, not a measurement11. Source: Voltus press release, 2026-10-08.
  • "The DOE's uh estimate of where we needed to be was 80,000 MW by uh 2030. So, you were 25% of it." Jigar Shah [TC12]. Verified with nuance16. DOE gave a range, 80-160 GW by 2030, and said it 'could support' load growth; it is not a single target. 80 GW is the low end, so Voltus's 20 GW would be 12.5-25% of the range16. Source: DOE Office of Technology Commercialization release, 2025-01-10.
  • "says it's going to be 24% over the next decade" Dana Guernsey, on NERC's forecast [TC09]. As stated, not independently verified. Our only support is Voltus's press release quoting NERC, and it refers to peak demand, not yearly energy11.
  • "PJM is saying that they're 6,800 MW short of its reliability target in the last auction" Jigar Shah [TC14]. Verified1. Source: PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report: 6,831.3 MW UCAP short1.
  • "only 525 MW of new power plants showed up" Jigar Shah [TC15]. Verified with nuance1. Source: PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report: 524.7 MW UCAP, of which 317.1 MW is new plants and 207.6 MW is uprates1.
  • "It's about 130,000 MW, I think, of peak" Jigar Shah [TC19]. Contradicted8,12. PJM estimated an unrestricted peak of 168,158 MW on July 2, 2026, and served a preliminary 162,713 MW8,12. Sources: PJM Inside Lines, 2026-07-10; PJM DISRS presentation, 2026-08-03.
  • "GE Vernova is now taking orders for 2031 delivery with a backlog of 116,000 MW" Jigar Shah [TC20]. Verified with nuance3. Source: GE Vernova 2Q 2026 earnings call, 2026-07-22. The 116 GW is firm orders plus slot reservations, not firm backlog alone3.
  • "a homeowner with a smart thermostat might get $25 a year; a homeowner with a home battery might get a few hundred dollars a year" Jigar Shah (host) [TC25]. As stated, not independently verified6.
  • "a data center in the PJM made $11 million in a year for 139 MW" Jigar Shah [TC26]. Verified with nuance15. Source: Voltus blog, 2026-01-12. The 139 MW included backup generation, and the source does not say over what period the $11 million was earned15.
  • "how about if the rule was: if you have access to the data, then you use it, and if you don't, then you're allowed to use statistical sampling?" Dana Guernsey [TC35]. Verified with nuance7. Source: FERC order, Docket EL26-4-000, issued 2026-07-29. FERC granted the complaint in part and set a paper hearing, so it is not final7.
  • "you announced a big deal with Google around 100 megawatts" Jigar Shah [TC50]. Verified with nuance4. Source: Voltus press release, 2026-06-02: up to 100 MW each year, in a three-year agreement4. It grew by 1,070 MW to about 1 GW on 2026-10-22, after the conversation5.
  • "these hyperscaler contracts are 10-plus years in nature" Dana Guernsey [TC56]. As stated, not independently verified. She did not name a deal. The one hyperscaler deal in our sources, Google's, is a three-year agreement4.

Notes

  • Preliminary. PJM's 162,713 MW (instantaneous peak) and 168,158 MW (estimated unrestricted peak) are preliminary, from PJM's August 3, 2026 operations presentation12. Demand response performance is PJM's preliminary estimate; the official count takes 60 days8. The three numbers are measured differently and don't add up to each other8,12.
  • As stated, not independently verified. Quotes are from a transcript of the Energy Empire podcast, 2026-10-08: Jigar Shah (host) at 00:15:516; Dana Guernsey (Voltus CEO) at 00:16:406. At 00:18:06 Guernsey also said businesses told Voltus "we were going to have to lay off a whole shift, but now, now we can keep those people employed," and others "kept their church open because of the payments they received"6. The transcript was not checked against the audio6.
  • Company figures. Voltus's 8.5 GW is capacity it manages, not 8.5 GW used every day, and it is not independently audited13. The 20 GW is a company forecast; the release ties "across the U.S. and Canada" to Voltus's leadership position, not directly to the 20 GW11. Google's own-data-center 1 GW is a company claim4.
  • Includes backup generation. The Voltus case study says the 139 MW came from "load shifting and backup generation"; it does not say what fuel the generators use, or over what period the $11 million was earned15. Backup generation also sits in PJM's emergency toolkit: a DOE emergency order of June 30, 2026 let PJM direct backup generation to run as a last resort before or during an Energy Emergency Alert level 317.
  • Estimates, not targets. PJM's reserve margins are estimates from its auction report1. DOE's 80-160 GW is what it says could support load growth, not a goal; the sentence names no geography, while the 33 GW covers North America16.
  • Second-hand or mixed. NERC's 24% is quoted from Voltus's press release and refers to peak demand, not yearly energy; the NERC report itself was not checked11. GE Vernova's 116 GW mixes firm orders and slot reservations; it is not firm backlog alone3.
  • Counted differently. Demand response cleared in the auction is MW UCAP committed ahead1; the July 2 figure is MW delivered on one day8. Comparing either with the shortfall is a rough size check, not a sum1,8.
  • EXAMPLE. Illustrative numbers, not measurements. The store figures and 2 kW per home are round numbers given as examples (Energy Empire podcast, 2026-10-08, 00:14:00 and 00:25:02)6; the arithmetic is ours.
  • Not final. FERC set a paper hearing on the replacement rule, so the outcome is not final. The order covers PJM's emergency and pre-emergency load response program7.

FERC Order 2222 relevance: yes. Demand response and VPPs like Voltus's are distributed energy resources (DERs); FERC Order No. 2222 (issued 2020-09-17, Docket RM18-9-000) requires RTOs/ISOs, PJM included, to let DER aggregations with a minimum size of no more than 100 kW into their capacity, energy and ancillary service markets. Source: FERC Order No. 2222 (ferc.gov, listed in Sources).

Grid source check. Ting Sensor Network power-quality data (CPQI by utility, Sept 2026) was reviewed18. It is Ting sensor data, not official utility data, and Ting shows no link to demand response or the PJM peak, so it is not used here (cite and link only)18. Ting THD was not reviewed, and only page 1 of 3 of the CPQI table was seen18.

Key data and claims: source and times. Quotes in that section are from a transcript of the Energy Empire podcast, 2026-10-08 (Jigar Shah, host; Dana Guernsey, Voltus CEO). [TC] ids point to the item's transcript claims file. Times: TC01 00:01:58; TC06 00:07:28; TC10 00:05:57; TC12 00:19:03; TC09 00:05:57; TC14 00:19:03; TC15 00:19:03; TC19 00:20:35; TC20 00:20:35; TC25 00:15:51; TC26 00:15:51; TC35 00:23:31; TC50 00:34:27; TC56 00:40:17. Sponsor segments are left out.

Sources

Numbered notes in the text point here. Claim ids refer to the item's claim ledger (v7). TC ids in Key data refer to the item's transcript claims list.

  1. PJM 2028/2029 Base Residual Auction Report (2026-07-14). https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/2028-2029/2028-2029-bra-results-report.pdf Claims: C11, C12, C30
  2. PJM Capacity Auction Procures 138,318 MW ... (PJM news release, 2026-07-14). https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/about-pjm/newsroom/2026-releases/20260714-pjm-capacity-auction-procures-138318-mw-of-generation-resources.pdf Claims: C13
  3. GE Vernova 2Q 2026 earnings call transcript (2026-07-22). https://www.gevernova.com/sites/default/files/gev_webcast_transcript_07222026.pdf Claims: C15
  4. Voltus and Google ... Bring Your Own Capacity Agreement (Voltus press release, 2026-06-02). https://www.voltus.co/press/voltus-google-bring-your-own-capacity-pjm Claims: C20, C22
  5. Google and Voltus Announce One Gigawatt BYOC Agreement (Voltus press release, 2026-10-22). https://www.voltus.co/press/google-voltus-1gw Claims: C21
  6. Energy Empire podcast: Voltus CEO Dana Guernsey interview, 2026-10-08 (transcript). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QS95JeWXXOw Claims: C19, C25, C26, C27
  7. FERC Order Granting Complaint in Part and Establishing Paper Hearing Procedures, Docket EL26-4-000 (issued 2026-07-29). https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/documents/ferc/orders/2026/20260729-el26-4-000.pdf Claims: C16, C17
  8. PJM Serves Load Through Record-Breaking July Heat (PJM Inside Lines, 2026-07-10). https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-serves-load-through-record-breaking-july-heat/ Claims: C10, C28, C62
  9. PJM 2026/2027 Base Residual Auction Report (2025-07-22). https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/2026-2027/2026-2027-bra-report.pdf Claims: C35
  10. Statement of Principles Regarding PJM (DOE, signed 2026-01-15). https://www.energy.gov/documents/statement-principles-regarding-pjm Claims: C31
  11. Voltus Raises $225 Million to Make Flexibility Foundational to the Grid (Voltus press release, 2026-10-08). https://www.voltus.co/press/voltus-series-d-funding Claims: C01, C02, C06, C09, C38
  12. Hot Weather Operations and Load Management Events, July 2-3 (PJM DISRS presentation, Scott Baker, 2026-08-03). https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/committees-groups/subcommittees/disrs/2026/20260803/20260803-item-05---july-hot-weather-and-load-management-events---presentation.pdf Claims: C37
  13. Voltus About page (retrieved 2026-10-30). https://www.voltus.co/about Claims: C05
  14. Voltus Launches "Bring Your Own Capacity" Product to Support Data Center Growth and Grid Resiliency (Voltus press release, 2025-09-30). https://www.voltus.co/press/bring-your-own-capacity-data-centers Claims: C23
  15. PJM Capacity Auction Results 2027/2028: What C&I Facilities Need to Know (Voltus blog, 2026-01-12). https://www.voltus.co/blog/pjm-capacity-auction-results-2027-2028 Claims: C24
  16. DOE Office of Technology Commercialization release: New Reports From 'Pathways to Commercial Liftoff' Series ... Virtual Power Plants (2025-01-10). https://www.energy.gov/technologycommercialization/articles/us-department-energy-releases-new-reports-highlighting Claims: C34
  17. Energy Secretary Secures Mid-Atlantic Grid Ahead of Period of Hot Weather (DOE Newsroom, 2026-06-30). https://www.energy.gov/articles/energy-secretary-secures-mid-atlantic-grid-ahead-period-hot-weather Claims: C39
  18. Consumer Power Quality Index by utility, Sept 2026 (Ting Labs, Ting Sensor Network). Ting sensor data, not official utility data; cite and link only. https://power-quality.tingfire.com/?month=2026_09 Claims: C45 · secondary, cite and link only
  19. PJM 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction Report (2025-12-17). https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/markets-ops/rpm/rpm-auction-info/2027-2028/2027-2028-bra-report.pdf Claims: C12
  20. FERC Order No. 2222, issued 2020-09-17 (Docket RM18-9-000). https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-09/E-1_0.pdf

Further reading