# Topic map (draft)

Draft map for a draft article; not for citation. Detail text: from mindmap_v11.json.

- Paying people not to use power
  - The capacity gap
    - Load growth forecast
      - NERC: peak demand +24% [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC09, C09)
      - Bills doubling or tripling [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC31)
      - Business energy costs +5%/yr [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC29)
    - PJM's auction squeeze
      - 2026/27: 139 MW above requirement [Verified] (claims: C35)
      - 2027/28: 6,516.6 MW short [Verified] (claims: C12)
      - 2028/29: 6,831.3 MW short [Verified] (claims: TC14, C11)
      - Reserve margin 14.7% vs 20% [Verified] (claims: C11)
      - New supply only 524.7 MW [Verified with nuance] (claims: TC15, C12)
      - Price at cap: $325/MW-day [Verified] (claims: C13)
    - How big is PJM
      - 13 states plus DC [Verified] (claims: TC18, C13)
      - Peak 162,713-168,158 MW, not 130,000 [Contradicted] (claims: TC19, C10, C37)
    - Gas can't arrive in time
      - GE Vernova: 116 GW orders, reservations [Verified with nuance] (claims: TC20, C15)
      - Gas back-ordered to ~2030 [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC21)
    - Heat dome, July 2026
      - Record day: July 2, 2026 [Verified with nuance] (claims: C10, C37, C62)
      - 6,113 MW demand response delivered [Verified with nuance] (claims: C28)
      - Prices 'go bonkers' [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC47)
  - Voltus and how VPPs work
    - Scale
      - 8.5 GW managed (company figure) [Verified with nuance] (claims: TC01, C05)
      - Thousands of customers [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC22)
      - 70-80 verticals [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC27)
    - Dispatch and controls
      - Daily, near-hourly dispatch [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC02, TC03)
    - Power vs energy
      - EXAMPLE: Store: 3x power, 15 minutes [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC23, C27)
      - EXAMPLE: Battery site: up to 10x [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC24, C27)
      - EXAMPLE: 50,000 homes at 2 kW [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC37, C19)
    - Residential, business, data centers [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC55)
  - Who gets paid, how much
    - Homes
      - Thermostat ~$25/yr (Shah) [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC25, C25)
      - Battery: a few hundred $/yr [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC25, C25)
    - Data centers
      - 139 MW earned $11 million [Verified with nuance] (claims: TC26, C24)
    - Businesses
      - ~20% off spend common [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC28, C26)
      - Kept a shift, church open [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC30, C26)
  - FERC smart-meter fight
    - Complaint and ruling
      - Complaint against PJM, Oct 2025 [Verified] (claims: TC32, C16)
      - Order issued July 29, 2026 [Verified] (claims: TC36, C17)
      - Sampling ban found unjust [Verified with nuance] (claims: TC35, C17)
      - Paper hearing: not final [Verified] (claims: C17)
    - Access barriers
      - 10M meters, $6B (unverified) [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC33, C18)
      - Illinois opened to residential [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC34)
      - Virginia batteries can't enroll [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC39)
      - Utility-run programs lead [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC40)
      - ~30 million homes in PJM [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC38, C19)
  - Bring Your Own Capacity
    - BYOC launched Sept 30, 2025 [Verified] (claims: TC49, C23)
    - Google deal
      - Up to 100 MW a year [Verified with nuance] (claims: TC50, C20)
      - Hyperscaler contracts '10+ years' [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC56, C20)
      - Grew by 1,070 MW (~1 GW) [Verified] (claims: C21)
      - Google's own 1 GW DR [Verified with nuance] (claims: C22)
    - Flex vs on-site gas
      - On-site gas: 25-200 h/yr [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC52)
      - 31 turbine types [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC51)
    - Sunrun and Octopus partners [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC53)
  - Money and growth plan
    - The raise
      - $225M Series D [Verified] (claims: TC04, TC06, C01, C02)
      - Investors named in release [Verified] (claims: TC07, C03)
      - Salix: not in release [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC08, C03)
      - 'Biggest round' in 10 years [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC05, C04)
    - Growth targets
      - 20 GW by 2030 (forecast) [Verified] (claims: TC10, C06)
      - PJM-heavy, North America [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC17, C38)
      - '30 by 30' stretch goal [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC54, C07)
    - Share of DOE estimate
      - DOE range: 80-160 GW by 2030 [Verified with nuance] (claims: TC12, C34)
      - 20 GW = 12.5-25% of DOE [Verified with nuance] (claims: TC11, C06, C34)
      - 33 GW in North America (Jan 2025) [Verified] (claims: C34)
    - Can PJM reach 10 GW? [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC16)
      - ~7,000 MW DR cleared 2028/29 [Verified] (claims: C30)
  - Politics and affordability
    - Statement of Principles, Jan 2026 [Verified with nuance] (claims: TC43, C31)
    - 'Shapiro Cap' [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC44)
    - 36 governor races [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC41, C32)
    - Virginia plan includes VPPs [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC42, C32)
  - Grid economics and reliability
    - ~10% flex cuts congestion prices [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC46, C29)
    - NJ outages twice a day [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC48)
    - Ting power-quality data (context) [As stated, not independently verified] (Ting sensor data, not official utility data) (claims: C45)
  - Future grid (2035)
    - 20% flexible by 2035? [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC57)
    - AI orchestration: a vision (claims: TC62)
    - Voltus 10 years old [As stated, not independently verified] (claims: TC45)
